Will Britain really be out of pubs by June, 2037?
There were some startling facts in this week’s story about the threat of pub closures across the country - none more so than this one: each week in Britain, 39 pubs close. 39! Was this possible?
According to the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) there are 57,500 pubs across the country, so if the closure figure were correct, that would mean the UK would be out of pubs in 28.35 years - or around June, 2037.
We decided to check out the stats. The 39 per week figure is put out by the BBPA - the pub industry body - which in turn, uses figures produced by an industry analyst called CGA Strategy.
For the past 5 years, CGA has produced a Pub Closures report, which it compiles from a range of sources, including beer wholesalers, delivery lists from beer distributors, the trade press and its own team of researchers.
From 8 closures per week in 2004, according to the CGA, the number of pubs closing each week has risen to 27 in 2007 and 38 last year. (How the figure became 39 in the BBPA literature is a mystery.)
Was there a possibility CGA wasn’t incorporating new openings or pubs changing hands in its closure figures? Nope - the number is a net figure which takes into account openings and closures, it said. How did it explain the massive jump - shown in blue in our graph above - from 2006 to 2007? Had it changed its methodology around that time?
“Our methodology has been consistent throughout for this data and reflects a major increase in closure that occurred at this time,” said a CGA spokesman. “This could be due to a number of things - the new licensing regime, aggressive alcohol pricing from supermarkets, and increased competition which has forced less competitive outlets out of the market.”
CGA’s figures differ markedly from CAMRA’s - the Campaign for Real Ale (shown above in green),but by CAMRA’s own admission, its survey hasn’t been going as long, isn’t as formal, and relies on reports from volunteers at its 200 branches around the country.
So 39 per week seems the best estimate there is.
We decided to check out another stat in the BBPA’s literature while we were at it: “Through beer duty alone, the Government now makes 50 times the profit of the four largest brewers on each pint sold.”
That too seemed a big claim.
To HMRC, then, for a lesson in beer duty: “Beer duty is charged at £16.15 per hectalitre (100 lt.) per per cent of alcohol in the beer,” said an HMRC spokesman. In other words, on a pint (568mL) of 4.2 per cent strength beer, the duty is calculated thus: 16.15/100*.568*4.2 = 38.52p.
That would mean, taking the BBPA at its word, that an average brewer would make .77p per pint profit - about three quarters of a penny.
Was this true?
Over to Mark Hunter, chief executive of Coors Brewers - the 2nd largest brewer in the UK, who told our business section recently that because of range of pricing pressures his company now made on average 1p per pint sold in the UK.
So the BBPA claim checks out. (Perhaps it should say the government makes 40 times the profit rather than 50, but that’s a quibble.)
The main lesson seems to be: it’s dire times for the pub industry indeed.
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18 Responses to “Will Britain really be out of pubs by June, 2037?”
I hope so, the only think they offer is bad service, bad food and loud drunkards…….
Nick you really need to get out more
The closures are also forced by the change in public attitude towards drinking and driving. Thirty, forty years ago, no one would bat an eyelid to someone having a skinful at the local and driving home. Now people frequenting country pubs (as surely these are the ones closing) are beholden to book a taxi, or stay depressingly sober. Why would you go to a pub, however nice, that is out of the way, to stay sober so you can drive your loaded friends home? Of course, drinking and driving is socially unacceptable, but pubs that were formerly supported by customers who could find their own way home (remembering it or not) will surely go to the wall quicker then those from which you can comfortably stagger home under your own propulsion. BTW, if there’s any organization that is supporting the switching of high liquor tax from pubs to supermarkets, please post - I would gladly support such a move, in order to save any pub from closure.
The figures are indeed startling; i do think however it will level out. People now demand and expect better quality from their boozers and much of the rubbish will go. There are a ton of great pubs out there and hopefully the early indications from the real ale figures stand true for the future and we see the proper british Ale pub going strong - of course now with a bit of fancy food.. And Nick yes you need to get out more, or don’t - stay at home with your tinnie and m&s meal for one..
I notice that there was a massive rise in pub closures in 2007. What happened in 2007 to cause this? Oh yes. the smoking ban.
Quote:-said a CGA spokesman. “This could be due to a number of things - the new licensing regime, aggressive alcohol pricing from supermarkets, and increased competition which has forced less competitive outlets out of the market.”
Of course, every possible reason for the closure of so many pubs is mentioned except the true reason for this massive decline-THE SMOKING BAN!
It has been totally apparent since July 1st, 2007, that it is not ‘PC’ to mention this a the cause as gov’t have decreed it is for our own health & safety-yet our own H&S could find no link between passive smoking and mortality!
The laws surrounding this mass killer of public houses is so restrictive that the majority of landlocked pubs will inevitably close. The ’shelters’ allowed for smokers are less than fit for pigs (element wise) and EHO’s are so over zealous as to almost be akin to the Gestapo with prosecutions.
It is no wonder that 3,000 venues have now disappeared for without smokers pubs will surely close. The government ‘consultations’ were all rigged to suit government purposes and of all the so called surveys carried out, the most important of all was omitted! 68% of regular drinkers ARE smokers-not 68% of non smokers! Had the reverse been the case then the mass cull of the trade we are witnessing would not be happening!
Had this dictatorial government given all licensees choice then the only pubs losss would have been to ‘non smoking’ pubs, for the new law did not entice the promised hordes of non smokers to the ;clean air’ pubs.
But of course our ‘pumped up’ healthist government will not admit they may have got it wrong, or that passive smoking does not kill (there is not a singlke death certificate to prove so!), oh no, they are too vain for that!
Supermarkets clapped their hands and stamped their feet in ecstasy on July 1st, 2007, for that was the day this government said,” cheap beer, cheap beer, support your local supermarket”. Supermarkets have been selling cheap booze for decades, mainly as a ‘loss leader’, but this new law gave them carte blanche to sell booze by the trolley load as smokers shunned the unfriendly, atmosphereless pubs that now smelled of ‘BO’ & cleansing products. No point going to “Eastenders” in Calais anymore to stock up when your local supermarket was practically giving beers away!
But of course it is now time to blame the supermarkets for doing what they do best-cut prices due to competition. They salivated as the fateful day drew nearer. They will survive, the pubs won’t!
Give 50% of the pubs choice and you will soon see which pubs are full of happy drinkers again-of the other 50%, well, 90% of the smoke free pubs will probably disappear. But then, that is the new “healthism” we are suffering from. Stress is the biggest killer, but stress has been ignored totally in this egocentric governmental charge toward oblivion.
The great thing about pubs was their diversity.The penal tax the smoking ban the recession mean we will be left with minimalist decor,micro wave meals and 20 types of lager at different temperatures.
For a brazilian who`s been recently in London, the impression was the same of years ago: that pubs were all full of nice people, nice music and, of course, nice beer. Hope the stats do not beat the mood!
Nick,
you forgot to mention the inflated prices so many charge compared to having a beer at home in comfort
We need to remember the landlords who are now out of work, it’s such a shame people don’t/can’t support their community anymore. I would prefer to go to my local and meet people than sit at home but unfortunately Gordon Ramsay has bought it. The locals are overrun by people who think it’s the done thing to drink in a Ramsay pub, it’s gone down hill rapidly, the food is awful and it’s lost any atmosphere it had.
Come on Great Britain! In these time of recession leave your tvs and your computers home, and go out and see real people. Go back to your old british habits, enjoy laughs and good beer, sharpen up your famous sense of humour, go back to the times when you were proud real people. Fight for your heritage and your culture. Nobody will do it for you. So many people come to your shores because you have inspired so many. They want a part of the british way of life. I have travelled a lot and everywhere I go people always say: ah, if only we had a cosy english pub in our town. And many towns do open some. don’t be the ones left without any. It’s your story. not only for pubs, write the next chapter…
Dear Jesus–it’s hitting y’all, as well!
I’d hoped over here in the States it wasn’t reaching across the globe, but I am sadly mistaken.
When the nation over here started crossing smoking from its bars and convenience stores, yes, we’ve started hitting the closures of favoured bars and other such establishments. Only in the last years have the problems actually started… with the current president of the states having his eye held on the possible dissolution of many of our favoured tobacco brands’ creativity being denied–flavour in tobacco, too, seems to be going out of style within certain regions.
…and I am dreadfully sorry that it’s hit this side… I was hoping on coming home, sometime in the next few years, but it doesn’t look like life will be any better when I do.
Looking at the graph we need to get women drinking more.
Pubs aren’t adapting very well. I have 3 school age children and we regularly go out on daytrips to villages around London. It is amazing how many quaint (and almost empty) pubs we go into for lunch, only be told they don’t take children! No wonder they’re going broke when they’re turning away business!
Regards Mike and taking kids to pubs. I for one do not want to sit in a bar full of screaming brats throwing tantrums and needing nappy changes. The adults doing it are enough for me!
Before long the British Pub will only exist outside Britain. In hardship postings such as Hong Kong, Singapore and even Shanghai. However, the Irish Pub is far more user friendly, and the singing is a lot better:
“And it’s down along the Bogside,
That’s where I want to be,
Lying in the dark with a Provo company,
A comrade on my left and another one on my right,
A clip of ammunition for my little Armalite”
The statistic for mean weekly alcohol consumption baffles me. According to the graphic men are consuming 15 units a week and women about 7. That’s roughly 3 quarters of a bottle of wine for a woman in a week and 6 and a half pints of lager for a man.
I just don’t believe that these figures are accurate at all. Most women I know drink as much as men if not more. If I think about everyone I know, young and old their mean consumtion will be well above the levels stated in this survey.
Where do the figures come from?
This ‘39 pubs a week’ closing statistic reminds me of a fact from my days studying Town Planning at uni. Apparently pre-1950/60s slum clearance there were well over 100 pubs in the Gorbals area of Glasgow, post-development there were under 10! That there could be so many pubs in one relatively small area always staggered me, it was Glasgow though i suppose - where the pub industry is still thriving incidentally.
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